Conference on Russia Papers

This article analyses how France’s role in European and global geopolitics is evolving in response to recent challenges, such as Russian aggression in Ukraine, shifting US policies, and China’s rise to power. As the EU’s only nuclear power and a major diplomatic and military force, France is well positioned to strengthen European strategic autonomy, a concept that has long been a part of French foreign policy and is now gaining relevance. While French foreign policy remains rooted in Gaullist principles emphasising national sovereignty and independent decision-making, it has been tempered by increasing interdependence and the need for cooperation with European allies. France has played a leading role in providing political, diplomatic, and military support to Ukraine, and has intensified its efforts towards European defence coordination by expanding partnerships and investing in its defence industry. France’s stance has hardened in relation to Russia, although pragmatism may remain important if future European security necessitates re-engagement with Russia and adaptation to China’s global influence. France’s leadership is paramount in advancing European strategic autonomy, security, and multilateralism, though success hinges on internal consensus and coordinated European action within a rapidly evolving global landscape.

This chapter examines the “human dimension” of European security, focusing on the issue of Ukrainian war refugees and the potential for their repatriation. Pushing people out of Ukraine is becoming one of Russia’s most important strategies for achieving its so-called “special military operation” goals. Cynical attacks on civilian infrastructure in Ukraine, including thermal and electrical generation, combined with information and psychological operations are working towards this goal daily. The consequences of people leaving Ukraine could be painful for both Ukraine’s future and European security. The situation of millions of Ukrainian citizens, who are unable to find fulfilment in the EU and have no place to return home, represents a real catastrophe for the European continent. To avoid this, Ukraine and its allies need to start planning the return of their citizens today, with appropriate adjustments to the state’s socio-economic policy.

Under shifting global power dynamics, Europe faces a dual challenge: Russia’s protracted confrontation with Europe and growing questions over the reliability of US security guarantees. These pressures expose Europe’s vulnerability and demand accelerated defence self-reliance. While recent initiatives have aimed at boosting budgets, industrial modernisation, and procurement, deterrence requires more than resources. The critical gap lies in the capacity to transform investments into deployable capabilities and to engage society across the continent. Two priorities are highlighted: establishing a permanent European multi-domain command-and-control structure to integrate land, maritime, air, space, and cyber components into coherent operational planning, coordinated with political and interagency governance, and strengthening civilian preparedness and resilience; ensuring that governments, private actors, and societies can respond effectively to crises and hybrid attacks. Together with industrial modernisation, these measures provide the foundation of Europe’s strategic autonomy and the most immediate steps towards credible deterrence and resilience in a volatile international environment.