Conference on Russia Papers

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine that began on 24 February 2022 has shattered Germany’s post-Cold War identity and left its Russia policy in ruins. For 30 years, Berlin pursued a strategy aimed at encouraging Russia to be a partner in European affairs. To this end, it invested heavily in dialogue, trade and bilateral co-operation. German policy makers saw no immediate military threat from Russia and drastically reduced military spending. Successive governments viewed Germany’s increased dependence on Russian gas as a stabilising factor in Europe since they believed that Russia needed the German market as much as Germany needed the gas. The new German government that came to office in December 2021 was deeply divided on the issue of Russia and struggled to respond to Moscow’s build-up of military force on Ukraine’s border. However, Chancellor Scholz’s Zeitenwende speech three days after Russia’s invasion signalled an abrupt change of thinking in Berlin, including the need to rapidly re-invest in defence and reduce Germany’s dependence on Russian energy supplies. Scholz also pledged strong support for Ukraine although the government initially vacillated over weapons deliveries causing dismay in Kyiv. The brutality of Russia’s invasion generated sympathy in German society for Ukraine while leading figures in the Social Democratic Party (SDP) who had promoted expanding the gas relationship admitted that they had misjudged Russia’s intentions. The spectacular exodus of German companies from the Russian market after the imposition of western sanctions signalled the end of an era in which Germany had hoped for the best in its relations with Russia but failed to prepare for the worst.